Tectonic Hazards: Theoretical Frameworks for Understanding and Management

Theoretical Frameworks for Tectonic Hazards

1.8 Theoretical frameworks can be used to understand the predication, impact and management of tectonic hazards.

1. Understand and explain the role of scientists in predicting and forecasting accuracy, which is dependent on the type and location of the hazard.
2. Understand the importance of different stages of the hazard management cycle (response, recovery, mitigation, preparedness) and explain the role of emergency planners.
3. Compare areas at differing stages of development using Park's Model to compare the response curve of hazard events.

Prediction and Forecasting Recap

Recap . Prediction means knowing in advance exactly when and where a natural hazard will strike with sufficient time for evacuation to occur. . Forecasting is the percentage chance (or probability) of a hazard striking a location. For example there is a 60% chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area in the next 25 years. · Prediction and forecasting help reduce vulnerability to hazards and along with modifying the event and modifying the loss are an important part of successful hazard management.

Forecasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Forecasting - Earthquakes can be forecast using gap theory - identifying quiet areas where stress has been building - San Andraes Fault last had a large quake since 1906 Forecasting also allows cities to prepare and undertake mitigation work

Prediction and Forecasting for Specific Events

Prediction = yes Effective - Japanese Tsunami 2011 as it allowed 0.5 million people to evacuate to safe/high ground Depends on the of source (i.e. earthquakes) Prediction And forecasting Tsunami Forecasting scientists run tsunami forecast models to estimate impacts at specific coastal locations - help with long-term development along coastline

Earthquake Prediction Challenges

Earthquakes Predict = No But ... EWS Japan was successful (-) false alarms (-) not always enough time, particularly for those communities close to the epicentre (-) older people may not have mobile phones

Volcano Prediction Successes and Failures

Predict = Yes Successful - Heimaey 1973. 3 days before the eruption, earthquakes detected All 5000 residents were evacuated within 24hrs to safety BUT, Accurate predictions of volcanoes do not always lead to effective management - Nyriagongo, 2002- eruption accurately predicted several days in advance by the Japanese funded observatory, but civil war in the area meant the Congo Government was not in control of the area and warning never reached the local city of Goma. Evacuation was therefore chaotic Nevada Del Ruiz 1985 - Despite prior to the eruption, eruptions the population were caught unaware and evacuation order were not carried out in time

Importance of Prediction and Forecasting

· Prediction is important for volcanoes and tsunami as it allows evacuation and can save lives. . It is not effective at protecting property which requires other strategies to modify the event or reduce the loss. . Earthquakes cannot be predicted but forecasting can allow time to implement mitigation work which will reduce loss of life and economic damage. . Both forecasting and prediction are valuable management tools but each are only part of the hazard management cycle which is needed to reduce vulnerability of communities and increase their resilience to tectonic events.

Hazard Management Cycle

Hazard management The hazard- management cycle b. Understand the importance of different stages of the hazard management cycle (response, recovery, mitigation, preparedness) and explain the role of emergency planners.

Disaster Management Cycle Stages

Capacity Building Pre-Impact Mitigation Preparati Disaster Management Cycle Ever Reconstruction Recovery Response Emergency Restoration

Hazard Management Process and Aims

The hazard- management cycle Hazard management is a process in which governments and other organisations work together to protect people form the natural hazards which threaten their communities. Aim: • Avoid or reduce loss of life and property; • provide help to those affected; • ensure a rapid and effective recovery.

Stages of the Hazard Management Cycle

pre-disaster Response igation Recovery The hazard- management cycle · Different activities occur in each stage, but there is also a great deal of overlap and linking between the stages. . For example, making buildings earthquake resistant (mitigation) will reduce problems in responding and recovery. . The cycle involve key players: Governments (at all levels) as well as all international organisations, business and community groups. . Task: label the model with the correct statements

Handout - Hazard Management Cycle Figure

Handout - figure · Place the following statements on the hazard-management cycle Risk assessment Long term mitigation work Preparedness, Warning & Evacuation Hazard Event Saving people, Providing immediate aid & assessing the damage Ongoing assistance Reconstruction, resettlement, relocation

Hazard Management Cycle Diagram

Hazard Management Cycle Preparedness, Warning & Evacuation Hazard Event pre-disaster Saving people, Providing immediate aid & assessing the damage Response Risk assessment Long term mitigation work 1 Recovery Mitigation = actions to reduce the scale of the next disaster. Eg landuse zoning, hazard resistant buildings Ongoing assistance Reconstruction, resettlement, relocation Media* Litigation

Task 1: Complete Hazard Management Cycle Table

Task 1 · Complete the staged of the Hazard-management cycle table.

Mitigation (Prevention)

Mitigation (prevention) Preventing hazard events or minimising their effects Identifying potential natural hazards & taking steps to reduce their impact. The main aim is to reduce loss of life & property (helping communities to become less vulnerable) Zoning & land-use planning Developing & enforcing building codes Building protective structures (tsunami walls) Before and after hazard events

Preparedness for Hazard Events

Preparedness Preparing to deal with a hazard event Minimising loss of life & property & facilitating the response & recovery phase. Many activities are developed by emergency planners Developing preparedness plans/raising public awareness (drills) Before hazard Developing early warning systems Creating evacuation routes events stockpiling aid equipment & supplies

Response to Hazard Events

Response Responding effectively to a hazard event Coping with disaster. Main aims are to save lives, protect property, make affected areas safe & reduce economic losses. Search & rescue efforts Evacuating where needed Restoring critical infrastructure (power & water) Ensuring services continue- law & medical care During hazard events

Recovery from Hazard Events

Recovery Getting back to normal Short term recovery- focusses on people's immediate needs/overlaps with the response phase. Can last for weeks even though considered short-term Long term recovery- involves same actions but continues for months/years. Includes taking steps to reduce future vulnerability (overlaps with mitigation phase) Short term: Providing essential health & safety Restoring permanent power & water Re-establishing transportation routes Providing food & temp shelter Long term: After hazard events Re-building homes & other structures Repairing & rebuilding infrastructure Re-opening businesses/schools

Activity: Country Case Studies

Activity Can you think of any countries which failed to consider any specific part of the table? Which countries effectively considered all aspects/most aspects? What countries have recovered badly- why? What countries have recovered well?

Parks Model (Natural Disaster Response Curve)

Rate of onset of disaster can be fast or slow Hazard Event starts Post disaster community may return to normality but not always Recovery from disaster can be fast or slow Improvement Normality Quality of Life Deterioration Pre-disaster Response (Relief) Hours -days Recovery Rehabilitation Days - weeks Reconstruction Weeks - years Time

Parks Model, (1991) Diagram

Parks Model, (1991) (Natural Disaster Response Curve) Post disaster community may return to normality but not always Improvement Hazard Event starts Normality Rate of onset of disaster can be fast or slow Quality of Life Recovery from disaster can be fast or slow Deterioration Pre-disaster Response (Relief) Hours -days Recovery Rehabilitation Days - weeks Reconstruction Weeks - years Time

Merging Disaster Stages

In reality the post disaster stage for one event will merge with a pre-disaster stage for the next one! Post disaster community may return to normality but not always Improvement Hazard Event starts Normality Rate of onset of disaster can be fast or slow Quality of Life Recovery from disaster can be fast or slow Deterioration Pre-disaster Response (Relief) Hours -days Recovery Rehabilitation Days - weeks Reconstruction Weeks - years Time

Handout - The Parks Model (Disaster Response Curve)

Handout - The Parks Model Sometimes known as the disaster response curve. Î improvement disaster event > level of economic activity- social stability ? normality - disruption deterioration recovery quality of life search, rescue, care temporary housing, etc. permanent building, etc. pre- disaster relief +rehabilitation +reconstruction time

Haiti: Post-Earthquake Analysis

Haiti Has it returned to normality? Improved? Declined? http://abcnews.go.com/International/years-earthquake-haiti-feeling- aftershocks/story?id=28165070 Photos (then and now)

Annotating the Parks Model for Haiti

If you were to annotate one for Haiti what would it look like? quality of life level of economic activity social stability disaster event improvement ? ? normality disruption deterioration recovery search, rescue, care temporary housing, etc. permanent building, etc. pre- disaster relief + rehabilitation +reconstruction time

Annotating the Parks Model for New Zealand

If you were to annotate one for New Zealand what would it look like? quality of life level of economic activity social stability disaster event improvement ? ? normality disruption deterioration recovery search, rescue, care temporary housing, etc. permanent building, etc. pre- disaster relief + rehabilitation +reconstruction time

Contrasting Disaster Response Curves

Contrasting Disaster Response Curves Quality of life / human wellbeing Hazard event onset A B C Preparation Response Reconstruction Mitigation 1 day 1 week 1 month 1 year Several years Study Figure 1 and decide which disaster response curve best fits the experience of Haiti after the 2010 earthquake disaster. Explain your reasons. » Time

Evaluating Usefulness of Models

Comparing HMC and Parks Model

Evaluating the usefulness of these models HMC PARK'S MODEL BOTH Takes into account the steps taken before a hazard to minimise the impact Allows us to compare the significance of the event with 'normality' Helps to chart the stages following a hazard/disaster Considers how one hazard leads into the next - they are not always isolated events Can indicate the magnitude or severity of the event. No quantitative 'data' to show the specifics of the each situation Focuses more on the management of the event than the impacts The speed to which things return to normality helps us understand how prepared a community was for the event and how successful it has been responding to the crisis Doesn't take into account the complexity of secondary hazards/impacts (e.g. Cholera outbreak after Haiti earthquake) No indications of time-scale Doesn't specific the steps take before the hazard event. Over simplistic compared to reality